This season was a big year for rookies. For example, three rookies: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner took the Leafs to the playoffs for the first time in a while. Zach Werenski looks like a veteran defenseman despite being 19 years-old. Matt Murray has won two Stanley Cups, and he’s only played one season, and you can’t forget about Patrick Laine, who is the most exciting Finnish product since Teemu Selanne. The following rankings take points per game, shooting percentage, and points in the last two months into account. These categories are good indicators of having a successful second year in the NHL.
10. Anthony Mantha, RW, Detroit Red Wings
Without Pavel Datsyuk and an aging Henrik Zetterberg, the Red Wings have to rely on the young players even more. The Red Wings are now in rebuilding mode for the first time in a long time. It’s not all bad, though. With 36 points in 60 games, Mantha had .6 points per game in his rookie season. This isn’t great, for sure, but it’s enough to put him in eighth in this category for rookies. The Red Wings aren’t in great shape at the moment, but I do expect Mantha to have a decent season in 55-60 range.
9. Jake Guentzal, C/LW, Pittsburgh Penguins
If you watched the Stanley Cup finals, you may have heard of this player. Guentzal was the leading goal scorer throughout the entire playoffs with 13. That’s what happens when you play on Crosby’s line. The Nebraska native wasn’t bad in the regular season, either, with 33 points in 40 games. But it remains to be seen if he can be consistent in a full season next year. With a 19.8 shooting percentage, he’s likely to regress. As mentioned, Guentzal does have Crosby on his line, who is obviously really good. So, it will be interesting to see what happens to Guentzal when he struggles. I expect him to struggle a bit, and I’ll say he’ll be in the 55-60 points range.
8. Matt Tkachuk, LW, Calgary Flames
Tkachuk made a name for himself when he got into a fight and then a public verbal spat with LA Kings Drew Doughty in late March. This incident got the almost 20-year-old notoriety as a hard-nosed instigator who gets under opponents’ skin. This is great for leagues that count penalty minutes. Tkachuk had 48 points in 76 games. Tkachuk is one of those players that went straight to the pros, and he’s bound to get better, especially with a 9.2 shooting percentage. He’s not Patrik Laine or Auston Matthews, but you can expect an uptick from him. I could see him getting somewhere in the 60-65 points range.
7. Sebastian Aho, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Aho had a pretty good season that went a bit under the radar. He had 24 goals and 25 assists, or 49 points in a full season. This puts him fifth in rookie scoring. With a low shooting percentage (11.2) and 15 points in the last two months of the season, Aho should be ready to take the next step in his development. With almost the same amount of goals as assists, the Finn has a chance of being a very versatile player in the future. I could see Aho getting 60-65 points. If expected, Aho won’t be under the radar much longer.
6. Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Werenski is the only defenseman on this list and for good reason. Defensemen usually take a while to develop, considering that it’s a tougher position to play. However, the Calder Trophy candidate didn’t seem phased at all in the pros. Werenski had 47 points, and that puts him eighth in rookie scoring and 13th among defensemen. He’s also not even 20-years-old. One of the reasons the Blue Jackets were successful was because of Werenski’s play. Columbus will want to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke. Werenski needs to be consistent if the Jackets are to do that. I could see Werenski making it to the top 10 in defensemen scoring next season, which would be about 55 or more points.
5. Mitch Marner, C/RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Here is the first of the three Maple Leafs on this list. These three will forever be linked and it will be interesting to see how they compare throughout their careers. Marner is very close to the other two Leafs sophomores. In fact, Marner and Nylander both had the same amount of points, 61. However, Marner played in four fewer games. He even led the Leafs in assists with 42. I’ll go into further detail in Nylander’s section but the main reason he dropped is he didn’t finish as strongly in the last two months as Nylander did. He still had 13 points in March and April, which, of course, isn’t bad. I wouldn’t be surprised if Marner gets 67 or more points next season.
4. William Nylander, C/RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
As I mentioned with Marner, Nylander had the same amount of points as Marner. Both had 61 points, and Nylander played in a few more games. However, Nylander did better than Marner towards the end of the season with 17 points in March and April. A part of that has to do with the Swede being on Matthews’ wing, but Nylander really did come into his own. There is no reason to suggest that Nylander won’t stop, especially with a relatively low shooting percentage of 10.9. There could be a case for Marner at this spot, but ultimately, Nylander did more at the end of the season. I’ll say Nylander will get around 70 or more points.
3. Matt Murray, G, Pittsburgh Penguins
Even though Murray played in 13 games two seasons ago, he wasn’t technically a rookie. A player has to play 25 or more games to be considered a rookie. So last season was technically his rookie year when he played in 49 games. He would have played in more considering he was injured for the first month of the year. Not only has Murray won two Stanley Cups before his second year, he also forced the starter Marc-Andre Fleury to remove his no-movement clause because Murray was playing too well. Fleury is likely to be drafted by Vegas and will make the 22-year-old the official starter. Murray had a 2.41 goals against average (13th in the league) and a .923 save percentage (tied for sixth in the league) in 49 games. Despite the Penguins defense being injured throughout the year, Murray was still reliable. He makes the Penguins even more dangerous, and there is still room for him to improve.
2. Patrik Laine, RW, Winnipeg Jets
With 36 goals, Laine was seventh in the league. The 2016 second overall pick has become the latest European that has won over the hearts of many North American fans through his interviews and highlight reel goals. The only knock on him is he didn’t end the season that well with eight points in the last two months. The Calder Trophy candidate also had a .88 points per game and a 17.6 shooting percentage, which shows that he could regress. But 36 goals and 64 points in 73 games is terrific. Laine will be selected in the second through fourth rounds of every draft, and maybe in the first in some drafts. The 19-year-old could potentially get 75 or more points next season.
1. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
There was one rookie who had more points and goals than Laine. Auston Matthews had 40 goals and 29 assists for 69 points. Very few players get to 30 goals, but 40 goals in his rookie year is incredible. Matthews was tied for second in the league goals. This stat makes him the odds-on favorite for the Calder Trophy. The Arizona native also beat the franchise rookie record in goals, which is no easy feat considering the Maple Leafs are an original six team. Matthews got a lot of those goals by crashing the net, but he is dangerous on any area of the ice. With the Leafs on the rise, Matthews will only get better. He will go in the first round in every league and should be good for more than 75 points next season. If he slips to the second round, don’t hesitate to take him.
Honorable Mentions: Mikko Rantanen (RW, COL), Juuse Saros (G, NSH) Jimmy Vesey (LW, NYR), Ivan Provorov (D, PHI), Travis Konecny (C, PHI), Pavel Zacha (C, NJ)