It’s finally official. The Marlins have traded Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees for Starlin Casto and two prospects. The Yankees are taking on $265 million of the $295 million still owed to Stanton over the next 11 seasons. One of the league’s best players joins its marquee team. There are many moving pieces here, with many players seeing their fantasy values adjusted. With so many interconnected parts to discuss, I’ll start the discussion with Stanton.
The 28-year-old moves from a great 2017 situation where the Marlins surrounded him with notable talent at the top of the order to the Yankees, who now have a nice slugging threesome, which also includes Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. It’s basically a wash between the two teams as far as the talent around Stanton is concerned. The Yankees’ lineup could improve depending on if they replace some aging veterans.
As for Stanton’s personal production, he shouldn’t see much of a change. While Yankee Stadium is friendly for left-handed hitters, it plays league average for righties. Just looking at 2017, Stanton’s home park-home runs total would not have changed in Yankee Stadium.
If Stanton had called Yankee Stadium home in 2017, the home run difference would have been… maybe nothing at all!
RF is shorter, but he hits everything so far anyway that he had nothing in the "maybe" zone there. pic.twitter.com/umT8AmlYQf
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 9, 2017
If the Yankees don’t add any more players, Stanton’s production should stay the same if he’s healthy.
Health questions will always surround Stanton. They shouldn’t. In a BaseballHQ ($$) study, I found previous hitter injuries aren’t predictive of future injuries unless it’s a chronic injury like David Wright’s back. Since 40% of all hitters will spend some time on the DL, he’ll likely get hurt again at some point, but there is no way to predict when. With some owners fearing the possible future injuries, Stanton is becoming a nice late-first or early second-round bargain in drafts.
As for the rest of the Yankees hitters, those in the starting lineup will see their values increase, especially their runs scored. However, someone will need to head to the bench. It’s likely to be Brett Gardner if Stanton plays in left field, or whoever is the designated hitter, likely Jacoby Ellsbury. This move also opens up the possibility of Gleyber Torres opening the season as the Yankees’ starting second baseman with Castro out of the picture.
The Yankees have too many pieces right now for too few spots, and they’ll likely trade some pieces before the season starts. For now, I’d assume Stanton, Sanchez, and Judge have full-time roles with the rest of the team’s playing time up in the air.
In return for one of the game’s best players, the Marlins get Starlin Castro. Castro, if the Marlins don’t try to immediately move him, becomes their new second baseman, replacing the recently traded Dee Gordon. His value doesn’t change a whole lot. He could be a decent source of runs if he leads off or RBI if he bats fifth. It’s possible he’ll see a bump in stolen bases, though. Castro was just 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts over the past two seasons. The Marlins may not have much to play for, and he may get the green light more often.
As for the Marlins, the values of Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna drop with the loss of Stanton and Dee Gordon. They made a great foursome. Yelich and Ozuna are also in the mix to get dealt this offseason as the Marlins continue to clean house. They are likely to generate good prospect hauls.
With both Gordon and Stanton gone, a couple of players will move closer to the top of Marlins’ lineup and see a boost in plate appearances, runs, and RBI. Justin Bour moving up is obvious. Whether he hits second, third, or fourth, it doesn’t matter; it’s a boon to his fantasy value. The new leadoff hitter is a little less obvious with J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro, or Derek Dietrich as possibilities.
The problem with getting too granular on each involved player’s fantasy value is that the Marlins and Yankees will likely both make several more moves, thereby adjusting player values once again. It’s these future moves that will decide the biggest fantasy movers from this trade, as the Yankees need to bench or move a player and the Marlins need a leadoff hitter.
Previous Hot Stove Analysis
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Potential Closers Traded: Boxberger and Johnson